Three Drop - R.I.P. Strategic Planning?
“You can always amend a big plan, but you can never expand a little one. I don’t believe in little plans. I believe in plans big enough to meet a situation which we can’t possibly foresee now.” – Harry S. Truman
Friends of Confluence West -
Most of you reading this post have participated in, or led, planning for your utility, organization, community, or company. Planning - and the commitment to carry out that plan - is essential. The question we’re exploring here at Confluence West - when is strategic planning the road to go down, or when is scenario planning more effective?
The climate policies of the Donald Trump administration serve as a useful example for comparing the effectiveness of different approaches. The administration’s policies—such as withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement and rolling back environmental regulations—highlight the limitations of traditional strategic planning in addressing uncertain, long-term climate risks.
In our new briefing paper, Comparing the Effectiveness of Scenario Planning vs. Strategic Planning in the Context of the Trump Administration and Climate Change, we recommend starting with scenario planning and then moving to strategic planning.
Here’s why:
Climate change presents organizations, communities, and companies with complex, long-term challenges marked by deep uncertainty, evolving scientific knowledge, and political controversy.
Scenario planning is designed for situations with high uncertainty, like climate change. Instead of depending on a single forecast, it creates several plausible future scenarios based on key uncertainties such as technological changes, policy shifts, and environmental impacts. Leadership can then assess how different strategies perform across these possible futures.
After identifying the highest risk and most likely outcomes through scenario planning, use strategic planning to develop your short-term operations (3-5 years), including final outcomes, capacity, and budgets.
What is your experience in these processes? Comments on the briefing paper?
If you’d like to discuss what option, or blend of options, would work the best for your community, utility, company, or organization, please be in touch.
For the West,
Kimery
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Many excellent NGOs, water utilities, tribes, Nations, communities, and public agencies are working to protect rivers and forests in the American West from the (sometimes overwhelming) challenges posed by climate change. We are proud to partner with many of them.
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