That Was Then - Now It’s This
How Climate Science in the Colorado River Basin Has Evolved: 2015 – 2025
Photo: Aron Bosworth
Friends of Confluence West -
Negotiations over the Colorado River Basin have stalled, there’s a new federal Administration, the basin’s structural deficit continues to grow, and there are bleak precipitation forecasts for the 2025-26 snow season.
As the saying goes, in order to know where you’re going, you need to understand where you’ve come from. We looked back a decade to understand what scientists observed in the Colorado River Basin, a region that Confluence West has focused on over the past 10-15 years.
As we look ahead, how can we quickly adopt resilient actions based on the best predictions science and indigenous knowledge currently provide? Read more below.
For the West,
Kimery
PS - In case you missed our last issue: We took a headlong dive into why most water tech entrepreneurs speak Martian and water providers speak Basque. Our new briefing paper - Lost in Translation: a Water Provider Emerging Technology Evaluation Checklist, outlines some of those reasons.
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Once Upon Time …
Back in the day (2007), when we started Carpe Diem West/dba Confluence West, climate scientists were generally viewed as humans to be yelled at and their findings dismissed.
For example, back then, most water agencies either ignored the science or wanted locally specific projections that were scientifically impossible to provide. Some environmentalists told us things like “We don’t work on water issues, we protect fish.” (Actual quote.) Reporters generally didn’t use the ‘c’ word. We’ve come a long way, baby.
Colorado River Basin: Evolution of Climate Science - The Short Story
Over the past decade, climate science has shifted from observing and monitoring long-term droughts in the Colorado River Basin to demonstrating and quantifying that warming-driven aridification—rather than just reduced precipitation—is the dominant driver of the basin’s declining water supply.
Scientists now report significant, measurable losses in streamflow and groundwater, earlier snowmelt and shrinking snowpack, larger year-to-year fluctuations caused by atmospheric rivers, and clear links to human greenhouse gas emissions.
Read the briefing paper here.
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That was 2024; Now it’s 2025
We send loud cheers and great thanks to everyone who contributed to Confluence West last year. Since then, it’s safe to say that it has been one hell of a year - like so many of our colleagues, we’ve had to paddle like crazy to stay afloat. Now firmly back in the saddle, we’re ready to rock in January.
Please support Confluence West (aka Carpe Diem West!) Since our founding in 2007, we've built successful alliances and campaigns and brought new climate science and opportunities to advance innovative, sustainable regional water projects in the American West. You can read about our current projects and the ones we're developing. Thanks for your support!
New! Kimery office hours - pick your time, and let’s see if we can find a path forward for your climate-driven challenge. Click here for office hours.
Many excellent NGOs, water utilities, tribes, Nations, communities, and public agencies are working to protect rivers and forests in the American West from the (sometimes overwhelming) challenges posed by climate change. We are proud to partner with many of them.
Why support and work with Confluence West? Since 2007, we've learned that long-term, equitable solutions require dedicated and talented people from every sector, issue area, perspective, expertise, and culture to bring their part of the elephant, their truth, to the table.
We build and lead projects that connect diverse decision-makers who, in turn, create science- and evidence-based campaigns. Check out our work! Or, email Kimery.
Confluence West: Innovative Solutions for the Western Water Community. Learn more